Papo de Política #110: estratégia e pesquisa eleitoral
Is_Jeremy_Corbyns_party_about_to_make_a_Holyrood_breakthrough.txt
Is Jeremy Corbyn's party about to make a Holyrood breakthrough?quando foi o primeiro sorteio da lotofácil3 September 2025ShareSaveDavid Wallace LockhartBBC Scotland News political correspondentShareSavePA MediaFormer UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has launched a new party Sometimes the left of Scottish politics can feel like a crowded place.You have the SNP, Labour and the Scottish Greens all claiming to be the natural home for voters who are that way inclined.And that's before you even get into a variety of smaller parties.And now there's (potentially) a new player on the scene – Jeremy Corbyn's latest project.It's not got a permanent name yet, but it's currently calling itself Your Party. And it's being launched with the support of another former Labour MP, Zarah Sultana.Corbyn has said that he fancies his chances in Scotland.He made that comment on a recent visit to Glasgow, where he joined striking workers on a picket line.There was plenty of enthusiasm there for the former Labour leader.But is there space for this party to make a breakthrough at the Holyrood election next year?Jeremy Corbyn's new party needs a name and it's trickier than you might thinkCould Jeremy Corbyn's new party shake up politics?That's a difficult assessment to make at this point.We don't have any Scotland specific polling on how Your Party is being received by the public here.A couple of Britain-wide polls have put support for the new project at 6% and 4%.That's hardly a political earthquake, but it does show the party is making some sort of impact.Other polls have produced higher results when the option of "a new left-wing party" is included. But this is a slightly vaguer way of phrasing it that pollsters tend to be more sceptical about.What we can't say at this point is how this party could perform in a Holyrood election – we simply don't have the data.The polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice says that research has shown Scotland is slightly more left-wing than England, so perhaps there is scope for a breakthrough?Getty ImagesScottish Green co-leader Ross Greer says his party has the best track record of delivering socialist policies That's echoed by another pollster, Mark Diffley.He says that Scotland's more proportional voting system for Holyrood means there is potentially a gap for a new "radical left" movement.And he points to the Scottish Greens as the party who could be most at risk of leaking votes.Ross Greer, a new co-leader of the Scottish Greens, insists that anyone who wants "to build a more socialist Scotland is a friend and an ally". But he adds that he believes his party has the strongest track record of delivering MSPs who fit this mould.Is Corbyn popular in Scotland?It is far from certain that Your Party will get any kind of foothold in Scottish politics.Jeremy Corbyn may be a big name, but Mark Diffley says there is little to suggest he has personally captured the imagination of the Scottish electorate."He is a figure who doesn't have a history of being particularly popular in Scotland," Mr Diffley told BBC Scotland News. "I don't think he's said much about Scottish politics in the past." And while Corbyn had a better than expected result leading Labour in 2017, his share of the vote was much lower in Scotland compared to England and Wales.But there are still some who think this new left party could be what Scottish politics needs.Neil Findlay was a Labour MSP once upon a time. He recently left the party over Sir Keir Starmer's stance on benefits.He now runs a public affairs firm that focuses on progressive causes.His West Lothian office walls make his politics clear: there is a quote from the famous Labour left-winger Tony Benn, various bits of trade union paraphernalia and - you guessed it - a Jeremy Corbyn poster.Getty ImagesCould Jeremy Corbyn's new party appeal to Reform voters?Neil Findlay thinks Your Party could secure backing from more surprising quarters - Reform supporters.The former MSP says that those inclined to back Nigel Farage's party are not necessarily right-wing.He explains that he sees them as frustrated people "looking for an avenue for their vote because they see the mainstream parties as having let them down".He is not currently involved with Jeremy Corbyn's new project, but he urged the party to get up and running for the Holyrood election next May, calling this "the big opportunity".But does this project not run the risk of splitting the left-wing vote and ultimately making life easier for parties on the right?Mr Findlay says that's an argument deployed by parties "who are very afraid that their vote is in decline and that some new kid on the block could start to muscle in on their territory".The independence question An obvious question for any new party in Scotland is what stance do they take on independence?Jeremy Corbyn is relaxed about the idea of a second referendum, having recently told BBC Scotland News that if voters want one "that's fine by me".But it is not entirely clear if his party is explicitly taking a stance on whether or not it ultimately backs independence.Your Party still has a lot of work to do. After all, it does not even have a final name yet.Some sort of conference to formalise the movement is expected later this year, though the clock is ticking when it comes to next May's Holyrood vote.There could be some sort of space for Jeremy Corbyn's latest party to occupy in Scotland.But if they're to get any sort of foothold in that election, they really have to move fast.ScotlandLabour PartyJeremy Corbyn
